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December 2008
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| In This Issue |
| Japan Home Show |
| Japan Home News |
| Northern Europe Market Report |
| Upcoming Trade Shows |
| Quick Links |
| Japan Home and Building Show 2009 |
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By Tomoko Igarashi
SEC booth was displayed with the photo panels of the
recent Glulam projects of Japanese non-residential
buildings made with U.S.Douglas Fir such as 'Yoppo no
Sato; Hot Spa and 'Michi no Eki Mikamo; Service Station'
both in Tochigi prefecture, Japan. The audience was
amazed at the strength of U.S. Douglas Fir and the
design of the structure. In addition, we also arranged
samples of Douglas Fir, Poderosa Pine, Southern Pine,
and Glulam made with Douglas Fir.
During the show, the visitors of SEC members also come to the show and developed the generic promotion and own research. For example, CINTRAFOR conducted the survey of Japanese 2x4 industry for Japanese builders. One of the U.S. participants, Mr. Mark Cobb of West Coast Juniper under OECDD/Oregon Economic & Community Development Department mentioned that it was a good opportunity to introduce 'the species of Oregon Juniper' something new for the Japanese wood industry. Some audience showed the interest in it.'
The next show American Softwoods Japan Office conducts
will be ' Architecture &Construction Materials Show 2009
at Tokyo Big Site' from March 3 to 6, 2009.
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Five of Eight Homebuilders Cut FY08 Sales Projections |
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TOKYO (Nikkei)--Five of Japan's eight major homebuilders have cut their fiscal 2008 sales forecasts due to sluggish demand amid the general economic downturn. The companies, including Sekisui House Ltd. (1928) and Misawa Homes Co. (1722), now expect to sell a total of only 170,234 units, a decline of 2.1% from the previous year. The new figure amounts to a 3.3% reduction from initial projections. Still, "The actual decline might be even worse than that," warned Daisuke Fukushima, a senior analyst at Nomura Securities Co. The fiscal year for seven of the firms runs through March 2009, while that for Sekisui House ends in January 2009. Several of the homebuilders made their downward revisions after their first half drew to a close in September. To make it through, several of the firms have indicated they will consider new strategies such as price increases and cost-cutting moves. "We want to get lean and improve profits, rather than try to push more units," said Ryu Yano, president of Sumitomo Forestry Co. (1911). Nobuo Takenaka, president of Misawa Homes, said his company will also step up cost-cutting in light of sluggish demand. Sekisui Chemical Co. (4204) recently revised upward its sales projection by 2.7% to 14,800 units. The upgrade was driven by robust demand for new low-priced houses aimed at young customers that began to be sold during the first half. Meanwhile, Mitsui Home Co. (1868) left unchanged its sales forecast of 6,200 units. As of the end of the first half, the company had a backlog of 130 more orders than a year ago, as demand from young customers for low-price custom houses seems to be holding up well. "Even so, we don't expect a dramatic increase in our overall starts," said President Ryoji Nakamura. According to an October survey by the Japan Federation of Housing Organizations, managers at 16 major homebuilders expect housing starts of 1,064,000 units in fiscal 2008, down 5.5% from April projections. Expectations for condominiums and other prefab units were down 10.7% from April, and the forecast for apartments and other rental units was down 5.2%. However, the forecast for detached homes was down by only 1.8%. "Some homebuilders saw rising orders for houses in the first half," said a federation official. "Perhaps this led managers to expect milder declines for detached houses than for condos and apartments." However, Fukusima of Nomura Securities noted that housing orders plummeted in October amidst the financial turmoil triggered by the September collapse of Lehman Brothers. In October, even Sekisui Chemical received 6% less orders than the year before, and the industry as a whole appeared to have received about 20% less orders, according to Fukushima. As such, "Sales this fiscal year will likely be less than what has been announced by the homebuilders." The government is considering an economic stimulus package that includes expanded mortgage tax breaks. If such a measure is implemented, this could stimulate demand in the housing market. Given the worldwide economic slowdown, however, homebuilder sales projections for detached houses still appear to be too bullish, and it remains uncertain whether such goals will be realized given the poor consumer sentiment. Industry competition is certain to intensify, and differences in profit margins among homebuilders will widen depending on their brand recognition and their ability to cut costs. --Translated from an article written by Nikkei staff writer Kentaro Toda (The Nikkei Business Daily Thursday edition) |
| Northern Europe Market Report |
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By Eddie Pearce The timber markets across Europe appear to be continuing the slow down in activity which had been noted for the past couple of months. The slow down in a number of countries (France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands) appear to have been less than in the rest of Europe. This situation seems to be confirmed by the exports volumes of US softwood timber to Europe which are shown in table 1. Stora Enso, one of the largest timber producing companies in Scandinavia, with sawmilling facilities not only in Finland and Sweden but also in Germany, Russia and Estonia have announced permanent closure of a number sawmills at these various sites which will result in a reduction in sawn timber production of up to 170,000m³. This situation has been attributed to the down turn in the demand for sawn timber. Another Finnish timber producer, Metsäliitto Corp has also announced sawmill closures. This will result in a reduction of 150,000m³ production. This decrease in production from Finnish timber producers supports the fact that sawn timber exports from Finland during 2008 on a YTD basis have dropped by 18% worldwide compared with 2007.
IMPORTS OF U S SOFTWOOD LUMBER BY COUNTRY (m3):
JULY
COUNTRY 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008YTD BELGIUM/LUX 6,210 4,053 7,177 8,075 3,904 3,085 DENMARK 1,689 1,485 1,139 1,231 1,644 623 FRANCE 5,308 6,824 6,365 9,941 6,869 5,068 GERMANY 5,753 6,417 5,590 9,538 8,968 6,623 GREECE 1,883 3,610 2,649 3,025 3,147 818 IRELAND 1,366 2,006 3,111 6,044 2,457 1,034 ITALY 15,476 22,096 21,660 21,111 18,546 13,389 NETHERLANDS 20,255 6,281 5,952 3,918 6,934 5,689 PORTUGAL 2,107 3,197 4,457 6,894 3,451 1,938 SPAIN 50,435 55,025 72,678 79,496 45,774 11,383 SWEDEN 131 789 1,227 667 1,536 521 U K 11,478 17,180 18,077 26,288 89,712 11,532 TOTAL EXPORTS 122,233 129,195 154,302 176,424 193,114 61,570 United Kingdom: The UK continues to suffer with a stagnant timber mark. New house building has virtually stopped. This situation is directly linked to the financial problems which presently exist whereby very few if any new mortgages are given. Germany: The German timber industry does not appear to be suffering to the same extent from the financial crisis as other countries in the EU such as the UK. This is reflected in the level of softwood exports which have been shipped to Germany so far (Table 1), which is currently 48% higher compared with the same period in 2007. However, with the number of new houses planned to be built during 2008-9 is forecast to be lower and the out look indicators are such that total consumption of sawn timber is likely to fall. France: France also appears to be going against the economic trend as being experienced in other parts of Europe. Demand for sawn timber has increased in line the building activity that is taking place in France. As a result softwood exports from the US have continued to grow, now standing at 42% higher compared with 2007. Belgium-Luxemburg & the Netherlands: Belgium continues to be a major importer of Douglas fir, particularly for the larger dimension products. Southern Pine is also increasing its export volumes. Douglas fir is primarily used in roof construction and Southern Pine is used in the manufacture of interior carpentry and joinery applications such as floors and stairs. Other Markets: During the past 3 years the UK office has been involved with promoting softwoods from the U.S.A. by participating at the Dubai Wood Show in Dubai, UAE. This is the largest trade show in the region which specifically targets the timber industry and it attracts many visitors from all around the Middle East and beyond, e.g. Pakistan and India. During this period there has been a significant increase in the volume of sawn American softwoods exported to these new regions, as can be seen in table 2. As part of American Softwoods promotional campaign to ensure these markets continue to import US softwood products we shall be participating in a number trade shows in Dubai, UAE and Delhi, India during this program year. EXPORTS OF U S SOFTWOOD LUMBER TO THE MIDDLE EAST - m3: JULY COUNTRY 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008YTD U A E 77 1,720 1,704 62 2,003 619 Saudi Arabia 1,816 655 1,974 1,142 2,150 1,823 EXPORTS OF U S SOFTWOOD LUMBER TO INDIA & PAKISTAN - m3: JULY COUNTRY 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008YTD Pakistan 1 50 0 739 7,188 6,577 India 10 30 135 628 134 1,735 EXPORTS OF U S SOFTWOOD LUMBER TO NORTH AFRICA - m3: JULY COUNTRY 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008YTD Egypt 2,085 1,586 2,319 3,448 9,281 5,640 Libya 0 128 36 737 3,360 4,183 |
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Upcoming Trade Shows and Seminars |
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Softwood Export Council- Promoting the expansion
of export markets for primary and secondary softwood
products manufactured in the United States.
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Softwood Export Council Phone:
503-248-0406
520 SW 6th Ave, Suite 810 Fax:
503-248-0399
Portland OR 97204 www.softwood.org
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