American Softwoods
.
1ST QUARTER MARKET REPORT
FOR
NORTHERN EUROPE
JANUARY
- MARCH 2002
OVERALL EUROPEAN SITUATION:
The economies of a number of countries within the EU appear to be improving albeit very slowly.
Although this improvement has occurred in a number of sectors of the economy,
it has as yet not been seen in the new housing construction sector. Where it
has occurred is in the refurbishment and renovation sectors of the building
industry, particularly in the UK, Ireland, France, and the Netherlands.
Belgium-Luxemburg
Belgium and
Luxembourg are unfortunately not showing any signs of improvement in their
economies and this is reflected in the import figures of softwood products from
the US in Table 1. The furniture industry, which is a major export earner for
these two countries, are showing severe downturns as a consequence together
with the fact they rely heavily on their trade with Germany.
Table 1
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
LUMBER
(m³) |
27,890 |
18,602 |
17,511 |
11,465 |
9,442 |
|
FLOORING
(m²) |
5,860 |
7,865 |
146 |
487 |
897 |
|
MOULDING
(m) |
520,435 |
667,723 |
624,389 |
852,176 |
N/a |
|
LOGS (m³) |
1,156 |
735 |
1,423 |
1,706 |
16,239 |
Denmark
Denmark continues to be influenced by the economic conditions that exist in Germany. As its main trading partner, Germany is a major customer for wood products that Denmark has to offer, ranging from furniture to flooring.
The figures in Table 2 show
clearly that the trend that is occurring with timber imports from the U.S.
resulting directly from its relationship with Germany. Furthermore, it is not
just the U.S. that is being affected because the Danish timber industry
forecasts that overall softwood timber imports in 2001 are likely to drop by about 10-12% and from all
sources.
Table 2
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
LUMBER(m³) |
1,302 |
1,308 |
1,220 |
803 |
878 |
|
FLOORING(m²) |
10,756 |
33,313 |
21,503 |
21,018 |
8,038 |
|
MOULDING(m) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
LOGS(m³) |
177 |
- |
684 |
37 |
373 |
Germany
Table 3 shows situation regarding exports to
Germany up to December 2001.
Table 3
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
LUMBER
(m³) |
63,257 |
52,477 |
44,117 |
27,352 |
11,226 |
|
FLOORING
(m²) |
6,608 |
9,400 |
12,850 |
15,133 |
10,612 |
|
MOULDING
(m) |
572,347 |
120,369 |
159,408 |
28,267 |
- |
|
LOGS (m³) |
1,843 |
1,208 |
6,055 |
8,078 |
25,763 |
The economic situation that presently exists
in Germany does not show any signs of improving. In fact, some forecasts are
indicating a further slight downturn. Whilst the imports of US softwood
continue showing a downward trend, the US is not the only country to be
affected. Imports from Sweden and Finland are also showing a downturn at 31.42%
lower and 20% lower respectively. The only major exporting country that
continues increase its market share is Russia, with 2001 running 45% higher
than 2000.
A further indicator that reflects the
situation in Germany is the fact that its window industry reported an 18%
downturn in sales for 2001. For 2002, they forecast between 8 and 10% downturn
with a slight improvement in the renovation and refurbishment sector.
Table 4 shows the comparison of various
timber species used by the German window industry, clearly showing how
competitively disadvantaged US species are compared with far eastern hardwoods
and European softwoods at present.
Table 4
|
Species & Prices for
Window Scantlings € per m |
January 2002 |
November 2001 |
|
Meranti White Seraya Spruce One-piece slats Finger jointed Pine One-piece slats Finger jointed Larch Oak Hemlock Douglas fir |
3.30 – 3.60 4.10 – 4.60 4.10 – 4.60 2.80 – 3.20 3.55 – 3.85 2.70 – 2.95 5.35 – 6.65 9.30 – 10.10 5.30 – 5.90 6.90 – 7.65 |
3.20 – 3.50 4.10 – 4.60 4.10 – 4.60 2.75 – 3.15 3.55 - 3.85 2.80 – 3.80 5.35 – 6.65 9.30 – 10.10 5.30 – 5.90 6.90 – 7.65 |
|
Source: EUWID |
|
|
The stair
manufacturing sector which has been a major user of Southern Pine, also
reported a significant downturn (18%) in activity in 2001.
France
The
French economy appears to be enjoying a
period of steady growth and this is reflected in the general well being of the
building and construction industry.
The downturn in imports of American softwoods
as shown in Table 5 and in particular Southern Pine, has not been help by the large quantities of Maritime Pine (Pin du Landes) which
flooded the market in 2000 and 2001 following a storm in December 1999 and then
was used in the production of moulding and flooring, replacing to a large
extent what was an important end use for imported Southern Pine.
Furthermore, the market for structural Douglas fir from the US has been lost to
Douglas fir harvested within France. This product is used fairly extensively in
the construction of houses in the northeast of France and the southeast of
Belgium. The higher grades of Douglas fir from the US still are of interest to
the window industry in France but strong competition from African hardwoods,
particularly from former French colonies, is severely hampering greater use of
Douglas fir by this industry.
On a positive note, the imports of American softwood added value
products such as flooring appear to be increasing and according to members of
the timber industry this is likely to continue since the storm damage timber is
no longer available. It is interesting to note that the UK office has during
the two months received a number of enquiries from France for suppliers of
Southern Pine.
Table 5
shows the US export levels to France for the year ending December 2001.
Table 5
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
LUMBER
(m³) |
12,250 |
11,884 |
29,832 |
26,677 |
4,773 |
|
FLOORING
(m²) |
782 |
- |
2,488 |
1,573 |
3,357 |
|
MOULDING
(m) |
- |
24,934 |
- |
228,196 |
36,228 |
|
LOGS (m³) |
1,449 |
2,572 |
3,997 |
7,598 |
5,039 |
Ireland
There is still considerable demand for
housing in Ireland and it is estimated something like 50,000 houses will be
needed over the next 10 years and discussions are going as to how this can be
best achieved.
Therefore on the horizon there will be
opportunity for the demand for US softwoods to increase again but this will
only be achieved if it is competitive compared with timber coming from the
other exporting countries.
Historically it has been shown that Ireland
invariably follows trends that had been initiated in the UK and this is now the
case with timber decking.
On January 15, 2002, a very successful
seminar on American-style timber was held in Dublin targeting landscape
designers, timber deck installers, and the timber importing industry. As is the
situation in the UK, this market sector is likely to grow over the next few
years. Table 6 shows the position as of
December 2001.
Table
6
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
LUMBER
(m³) |
5,109 |
7,290 |
6,440 |
6,326 |
4,713 |
|
FLOORING
(m²) |
16,578 |
35,058 |
15,925 |
15,140 |
32,311 |
|
MOULDING
(m) |
475,928 |
- |
- |
- |
33,334 |
|
LOGS (m³) |
36 |
595 |
467 |
1,464 |
398 |
The United Kingdom
The UK economy
continues to move smoothly and positively. However, the forecast for 2002 is
that it will not be as high as it was in 2001. The rate of new house building
slowed but the refurbishment and renovation activity is very strong as is
reflected by the amount of added value products such as flooring and moulding
that has been imported by the UK so far during 2001. Table 7 shows the export levels that have occurred up to December
2001
.Table 7
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
LUMBER
(m³) |
25,726 |
25,033 |
24,398 |
21,143 |
15,533 |
|
FLOORING
(m²) |
42,550 |
62,148 |
90,336 |
129,594 |
152,162 |
|
MOULDING
(m) |