American Softwoods
2nd QUARTER MARKET REPORT
FOR
NORTHERN EUROPE
APRIL –
JUNE 2002
OVERALL EUROPEAN SITUATION:
During the past 3 months there has been a general
improvement in the economies of most of the EU countries with exception of
Germany. This improvement is also
reflected in the increased level of imports of US softwoods during this period where
Belgium, France Germany and Italy have shown some significant gains over the
same period in 2001.
Table 1.
|
IMPORTS
OF U S SOFTWOOD LUMBER BY COUNTRY-m3 |
||||||||
|
=================================================================== |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COUNTRY |
1999 |
|
2000 |
|
2001 |
2002 |
2001 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MARCH YTD |
|
|
AUSTRIA |
|
54 |
|
89 |
|
157 |
1 |
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BELGIUM/LUX |
17511 |
|
11465 |
|
9442 |
3645 |
2272 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DENMARK |
1220 |
|
803 |
|
878 |
93 |
527 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FRANCE |
|
29832 |
|
26677 |
|
4773 |
2160 |
1237 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GERMANY |
44117 |
|
27352 |
|
11226 |
6673 |
2468 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GREECE |
|
10857 |
|
4589 |
|
6420 |
1111 |
1399 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IRELAND |
|
6440 |
|
6326 |
|
4713 |
782 |
1918 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ITALY |
|
73209 |
|
51633 |
|
28628 |
9935 |
8876 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NETHERLANDS |
10551 |
|
9825 |
|
14166 |
1861 |
8733 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PORTUGAL |
4947 |
|
3620 |
|
1535 |
746 |
368 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPAIN |
|
171062 |
|
154872 |
|
100353 |
20897 |
32595 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UNITED
KINGDOM |
24398 |
|
21143 |
|
15533 |
3748 |
4908 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL
EXPORTS |
394251 |
|
318739 |
|
197838 |
47663 |
65202 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unfortunately there does appear to be a
significant difference between the import/export figures depending on the
source. The figures in Table 1 are
based on statistics from the US Department of Commerce that shows that in 2001
U.S.A. exported 15533m³ to the UK. However,
statistics issued by EUROSTAT in Brussels, show that the UK imported 49465m³ in
2001. This wide divergence of what was imported/exported needs to be
investigated just to give confidence in what is actually happening in the
market place.
The economies of
Belgium and Luxembourg are beginning to show signs of improvement particularly
in the building and construction industries and this improvement can be seen in
the exports of US softwoods in the 1st quarter (Jan-March) of 2002
when compared with the same period last year. Douglas fir has made particular
improvement at 1290m³ as against 191m³
in 2001.
Denmark
In Denmark the economy remains stagnant. The
building and construction industry has been relatively quiet for the past few months and thereby affecting demand
timber products such as flooring.
Whilst participating at
FENSTERBAU 2002 in Nürnberg in Germany earlier this year it was reported how
the German window industry has been affected by the recession in the building
industry with the publication of the
following figures:
2000: 19.5million window units produced
2001: 16.0million window units produced
2002 forecast: 14.4million units
This forecast is based on
the fact that the number of new build homes during 2002 is
likely to drop by a further
10.0%
However, despite this
situation, the volume of Douglas fir has risen during the first 6 months of
this year. According to the timber
trade this is due to 2 factors 1) far
eastern species such as Meranti have become less competitive and 2) the
weakening of the US dollar has made Douglas fir more competitive and the
manufacturers are returning to their first choice specie which is Douglas fir.
|
Species & Prices for
Window Scantlings € per m |
May 2002 |
March 2002 |
|
Meranti White Seraya Spruce One-piece slats Finger jointed Pine One-piece slats Finger jointed Larch Oak Hemlock Douglas fir |
3.90 – 4.20 4.10 – 4.60 4.00 – 4.50 2.75 – 3.15 3.40 – 3.70 2.60 – 2.90 5.30 – 6.60 9.00 – 9.80 6.00 – 6.00 6.90 – 7.65 |
3.30 – 3.60 4.10 – 4.60 4.10 – 4.60 2.75 – 3.15 3.50 – 3.80 2.60 – 2.90 5.30 – 6.60 9.10 – 9.90 5.30 – 5.90 6.90 – 7.65 |
|
Source: EUWID |
|
|
Unfortunately
for Southern Pine the refurbishment/renovation market is also feeling the
effects of the recession. It is this
market where moulded and interior finishing
products such as flooring and stairs made from Southern Pine had been
used and is now being replaced by significantly cheaper products from eastern
Europe ie Poland.
France
The
French economy continues to improve and
this is reflected in the general well being of the building and construction
industry.
Following a slow first quarter the exports to
France have improved by 74.6% compared with the same period last year as can be
seen in Table 1.
According to a number of importers who were
contacted during trade service visits and at the Carrefour International du
Bois recently attended in Nantes, a couple reasons for this change were
given. Namely improved strength of the
Euro against the dollar and the fact that
both Douglas fir and Southern Pine
are the preferred species for their areas of application namely Douglas
fir for windows and construction and mouldings/flooring for Southern Pine. This in spite of
competition from domestically produced Douglas fir and Pin de Lande which is in
many respects comparable to Southern Pine.
Following several years in the growth in the
building and construction industry in Ireland a significant slowdown has been
observed during the latter part of 2001 and continuing into 2002 resulting in a lower rate of new houses being built. The implications for American
softwoods is that demand will slow
down. The effects of this
situation can be seen in Table 1 where
exports to Ireland have fallen by 60% compared with the same period last year.
The United Kingdom
The UK economy
continues to move smoothly and positively. However, the forecast for 2002 is
that it will not be as high as it was in 2001.
Having discussed the
market situation in the UK with a
number importers their opinion is that
the level of imports of American softwoods will improve during the second half
of 2002.
The decking
market however, continues to be of considerable interest in the UK.
From the
discussions that have been had with the major deck installers using treated
Southern Pine their forecast based on their analysis of the deck market
conditions and their own order levels is that they anticipated a growth in the
region of 10-15% over last year’s activity. The interest in this market sector
continues to grow as confirmed by the increasing number of enquiries the UK
office receives for information on decking.
Furthermore,
following our recent participation at Gardeners World Live Show at the NEC, Birmingham which is
sponsored by the BBC, we are able to
increase our list of treated Southern Pine deck installers by 3 to total
14 and list treated Southern Pine
stockists by 1 to 13.
The Netherlands
The continued increase in
the import levels of Douglas fir from the US confirms the increased activity in
the window manufacturing sector in the Netherlands. Douglas fir exports
standing at 100% above the level compared with same period last year.
Unfortunately the overall
export figures show a continuing downward trend, mainly due to continued
preference of Honduran Pitch Pine to that of Southern Pine.
During a recent trade service to the Netherlands the
importers and agents with whom discussions were held indicated that this downward trend would slow down during
the latter half of the year and they forecast that Southern Pine exports would
increase during